奥克兰哪里买房最艰难？这一地区飘了，首付要存10年
While we await the final results of last weekend's general election, this month's Home Loan Affordability Report looks at how housing affordability changed under both the previous Labour and National-led governments.
The report has been tracking the monthly movements in the main measures of affordability such as housing prices, incomes and mortgage interest rates since 2004, and how these affect the ability of first home buyers to purchase a home of their own.
This month we take a look at how those measures changed over the six years from September 2011 to September 2017, when a National-led government was at the helm, and then how affordability fared from September 2017 to September 2023 under a Labour-led government.
September 2011 to September 2017
John Key was Prime Minister for most of this time with Bill English taking over that role in 2016.
Although this was a National Government it was supported by confidence and supply agreements with ACT, United Future and the Maori Party and for its first three years even had a memorandum of understanding with the Greens.
The first thing to look at from this period is the movement in house prices, particularly the lower quartile dwelling price, which represents the bottom end of the market which is the entry point for first home buyers.
From September 2011 to September 2017, the REINZ's national lower quartile selling price increased from $247,000 to $350,000, up 42% over the six years.
However the real action was in the country's largest housing market - Auckland - where the REINZ's lower quartile price increased from $345,000 to $650,160 over the same period, up a whopping 88%.
So there was reasonably strong house price inflation over those six years with extremely strong house price inflation in Auckland.
What about incomes?
The Home Loan Affordability Report tracks the median after-tax pay for couples aged 25-29 working full time, as a proxy for the incomes of likely first home buyers.
At the national level, in September 2011 this would have given a couple a combined after-tax income of $1411 a week, rising to $1578 in September 2017, up 12% over six years.
In Auckland wages were slightly higher but the rate of increase was slightly less, rising from $1462 a week to $1609 over the same period, an increase of just 10%.
So the increase in house prices greatly exceeded the increase in wages for likely first home buyers during the six years from September 2011 to September 2017.
In September 2011 the average of the two year fixed mortgage rates offered by the major banks was 6.39% and by September 2017 that had declined to 4.70%.
This was a double-edged sword in that although it would assist with mortgage payments it was probably also a significant factor in the increase in house prices over that period.
So how did all of those factors affect overall affordability for first home buyers?
In September 2011 the mortgage payments on a home purchased at the national lower quartile price of $247,000 would have been $285 a week, assuming it was purchased with a 20% deposit.
That would have eaten up about 20% of a typical first home buying couple's after-tax pay.
In Auckland the mortgage payments on a lower quartile-priced home bought with a 20% deposit would have been around $398 a week, equivalent to 27% of a typical first home buying couple's take home pay.
The threshold for mortgage payments being considered unaffordable is when they take up more than 40% of take home pay, so by that measure, buying a home of their own should have been well within reach for most people on average wages in 2011, even in Auckland.
By September 2017 things hadn't changed much at the national level.
The mortgage payments for a home purchased at the national lower quartile price had increased to $335 a week, equivalent to about 21% of of a typical first home buying couple's take home pay - still very affordable.
But things had become a lot more difficult in Auckland, where the mortgage payments on a lower quartile-priced home had ballooned to $622 a week, taking up 39% of typical first home buyers' take home pay.
Ominously, Auckland was on the verge of becoming unaffordable for first home buyers on average wages.
September 2017 to September 2023后花园10月19日综合报道：
对于渴望上车的首次置业者而言，工党执政更友好还是国家党执政更友好？由Interest.co.nz发布的最新住房贷款负担能力报告或许可以说明一些情况。
该报告自2004年以来一直追踪房价、收入和抵押贷款利率等指标的月度变化情况，以及相关指标如何影响首次置业者的买房能力。
此次报告覆盖了长达12年的数据，其中包括6年国家党执政（2011年9月至2017年9月）和6年工党执政（2017年9月至2023年9月），评估负担能力如何变化。
2011年9月至2017年9月
在此六年中，John Key在绝大部分时间担任总理一职，2016年辞职后由Bill Englih接任。
虽然是国家党政府，但也得到了行动党、联合未来党和毛利党的信心与支持，在前三年甚至与绿党签署了一份谅解备忘录。
这一时期首先要关注的是房价变动，尤其是下四分位的住宅价格，代表了市场底部，也就是首次置业者的切入点。
从2011年9月至2017年9月，REINZ全国下四分位的售价从$24.7万增加到$35万，六年间上涨42%。不过在全国最大住宅交易市场奥克兰，下四分位价格从$34.5万涨至$65.02万，涨幅高达88%。
总的来说，六年间房价通胀十分强劲，奥克兰尤甚。
那收入如何呢？
报告追踪了25至29岁全职工作夫妇的税后工资中位数，作为首次置业者的收入参考。
从全国范围看，2011年9月，一对夫妇每周税后收入合计$1411，2017年9月升至$1578，六年增长12%。奥克兰工资虽然略高，但涨幅却偏低，同期收入从$1462涨至$1609，涨幅仅有10%。
因此从2011年9月至2017年9月间，房价的涨幅大大超过了潜在首次置业者的工资涨幅。
再来看利率。
2011年9月，各大银行提供的两年期抵押贷款固定利率平均为6.39%，到2017年9月已降至4.7%。
利率下降是一把双刃剑，一方面有助于偿还抵押贷款，一方面也是该时期推动房价上涨的重要因素。
综合以上因素考虑，首次置业者的整体承受能力又受到了什么样的冲击呢？
2011年9月，如果以全国下四分位价格购房，也就是$24.7万，首付20%，抵押贷款的每周还款额为$285，相当于一对典型首次置业夫妇税后工资的20%左右。
在奥克兰，以20%首付购买下四分位价格的住宅，每周需还款$398，对首次置业夫妇的税后工资占比为27%。
当占比超过40%时，抵押贷款就会被视作难以负担。照此标准，按2011年中位工资计算，买房对大多数人来说是可承受的，即便是在奥克兰。
一直到2017年9月，全国范围内的负担情况并没有发生太大变化。两成首付购买全国下四分位价格的住宅，每周还款额增加至$335，对首次置业夫妇的税后收入占比为21%左右，依然非常实惠。
不过奥克兰却已经来到危险边缘，同等条件购房的每周还款额增加到$622，对收入占比升至39%，距离突破40%的红线仅有一步之遥。
2017年9月至2023年9月
当Jacinda Ardern带领工党接管政府时，全国下四分位住宅价格为$35万，奥克兰为$65.02万。六年后的2023年9月，对应价格分别来到$58.5万和$79.9万，涨幅分别为67%和23%。
简单说，在工党领导下，奥克兰市场底部的房价增长有所放缓，但全国其他地区则迎头赶上。
收入方面，无论是全国还是奥克兰的典型首次置业者，同期税后收入均录得25%的增长。
至于利率，抵押贷款利率在过去六年间经历了剧烈波动。
2017年9月，两年期固定利率的均值为4.7%，然后在2020/21年跌至历史谷底，因为大量廉价资金被注入经济以避免疫情封锁后的经济衰退。此后通胀飙升，央行又开始连续加息以试图对抗物价飞涨。等到2023年9月，两年期固定利率的平均水平已经来到6.92%，是2010年7月以来的最高值。
综合下来，虽然奥克兰住房的可负担性在2017年9月就已经在危险边缘挣扎，不过在接下来的六年里，情况还要进一步恶化。对于以20%首付购买下四分位住宅的典型首次置业夫妇来说，他们需要将税后收入的48%用于偿还房贷。如果首付仅有10%，那偿贷占比还要进一步升至61%。
从以上数据不难看出，赚取中位收入的奥克兰买家距离其置业梦想似乎越来越远。不仅如此，奥克兰以外地区在过去几年也经历了住房可负担性的恶化，例如丰盛湾和怀卡托。
因此回望过去十二年，无论哪个政党执政，故事都无法令人轻松。
2023年9月奥克兰住房可负担数据：
1）下四分位房价：$79.9万
2）首付（20%）：$15.98万，需储蓄7.8年
3）贷款（80%）：$63.92万，每周还款额$973
4）每周税后收入：$2016
5）偿贷对税后收入占比：48.2%
就奥克兰各区而言，对首次置业者最高不可攀的地区是北岸，偿贷收入比高达62.7%。一对每周赚取中位收入（$2016）的首次置业夫妇如果想在北岸购买下四分位住宅，需要拿出$1264用于偿还贷款，而且要储蓄10.1年才能凑够$20.76万的首付款。
由于中区公寓较为集中，其住房可负担性也相对最好，偿贷收入比为42.9%。要想准备好$14.2万的首付，首次置业者需要储蓄6.9年。
责任编辑：番茄捣蛋
